This hands-on course provides a detailed treatment of essential concepts for performing sound risk analyses. 80+ example files are provided that demonstrate the techniques covered in the course, and more. Every user of Crystal Ball who is looking to become proficient as a practicing risk analyst should attend this course. This course will deliver the procedures and tools that will help you effectively control risk. The software used in the course is Crystal Ball Professional.

Day 1: Effectively Controlling Risk: The Basics

1. Overview and a Roadmap for Performing a Risk Analysis
2. Measuring Uncertainty: The Range and Shape of Key Uncertain Variables.
3. A step-by-step examination of Crystal Ball using simple examples

Day 2: The Three Key Components for Producing a Sound Risk Analysis

1. Selecting a sound distribution:
   a) The basics
   b) Fitting distributions to data
   c) Fitting distributions to expert opinion
   
2. Modeling correlation (interdependence) between uncertain variables
3. Modeling uncertainty over time: sound ad hoc methods
4. Introduction to CB Predictor
5. Demonstration of the components within example models

Day 3: Building Crystal Ball Models and Optimizing the Decision Variables

1. Building Crystal Ball models step-by-step with example problems
2. Performing risk analysis with the models we build
3. Testing mitigation alternatives
4. Making a decision
5. Extending Crystal Ball models: Finding the best values for decision cells in the models using OptQuest.

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