This hands-on seminar provides the beginning modeler, who is new to risk analysis and has never used Crystal Ball, an introduction to modeling in Excel and a step-by-step guide to performing sound risk analyses. 40+ example files are provided that demonstrate the techniques covered during the seminar, and more. Every beginning risk analyst, who is looking to get up the learning curve quickly to performing a sound risk analysis should attend. This seminar will deliver the procedures and tools that can help you effectively control risk without having to deal with the complexities of more advanced concepts until a later course. The software used in the course is Crystal Ball Professional Edition.

Day 1: Effectively Controlling Risk: The Basics

1. Overview and a Roadmap for Performing a Risk Analysis
2. Measuring Uncertainty: The Range and Shape of Key Uncertain Variables.
3. A step-by-step examination of Crystal Ball using simple examples
4. Developing model components using Excel I
   a) Range names
   b) Conditional events

Day 2: The Three Key Components for Producing a Sound Risk Analysis

1. Developing model components using Excel II
   a) Conditional events (cont.)
   b) Using IF-THEN and other conditional statements in Excel.
   c) Using Text Strings to label and to warn you if a condition has been violated.
2. Selecting a sound distribution:
   a) The basics
   b) Fitting distributions to data
   c) Fitting distributions to expert opinion
   
3. Modeling correlation (interdependence) between uncertain variables
4. Modeling uncertainty over time: a sound ad hoc method
5. Demonstration of the components within example models

Day 3: Building Crystal Ball Models: Practicing Risk Assessment

1. Building Crystal Ball models step-by-step with example problems
2. Performing risk analysis with the models we build
3. Testing mitigation alternatives
4. Making a decision

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