This new two-day seminar was designed for those overwhelmed by
statistical analysis but who know the results of their analysis
are "precisely wrong" (but hopefully close). Using a step-by-step
approach and Monte Carlo simulation software, the attendees will
learn how to generate sound ranges for their results, applying techniques
Dr. Sugiyama has been using for many years. A pre-programmed front-end
to Monte Carlo simulation software is provided to ease the process,
which can be applied to an Excel spreadsheet model. Standard reports
are generated, with charts to explain the results. The steps require
the identification of the "risky" components, their "range and shape"
and the identification of the analysis' "bottom-line." From that
point, the process is automated. The attendee is shown how to identify
factors that can mitigate the risk and how to implement and test
the effectiveness of the mitigation actions. Finally, a PowerPoint
slide presentation is provided as a template that can be used to
present results.
Day 1: Effectively Controlling Risk: An Introduction
- What Risk Analysis is: An Overview
- Advantages relative to running a few cases
- The Steps in Performing a Risk Analysis: A Roadmap
- Measuring Uncertainty: The Range and Shape of Key Uncertain
Variables
- Working through an example, step-by-step
- Converting a deterministic Excel workbook to a Risk model
- Identifying key "risky" components in the Excel workbook.
- Using the template to add "risk" to the identified cells
- Run the analysis and interpret results
- Test mitigation alternatives
Day 2: Producing a Sound Risk Analysis: A Beginner's Guide
- Defining range and shape in your analysis using expert opinion
- Defining range and shape over time: a sound ad hoc method
- Interrelated uncertainties: A brief discussion
- Performing the risk analysis
- Testing mitigation alternatives
- Presenting results
- Cementing the foundation: What we have accomplished, how and
why
|
Consulting Services
