February 14, 2007 - Dr. Sam Sugiyama has published an article
in the February issue of the journal Foresight, entitled "Forecast
Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation."
The preview to the article reads:
"Sam Sugiyama has written a primer on the use of
Monte Carlo Simulation to assess forecast error. His simple
illustrative example and description of the steps in the MCS
procedure provide a non-technical overview of this fascinating
approach to the evaluation of uncertainty in forecasts. For
regression modelers specifically, Sam shows how MCS can be used
to develop more realistic prediction intervals than the theoretical
PIs found in books and software."
February 14, 2007 - EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC, offers risk
analysis services for project cost and schedule assessment.
EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC, offers risk analysis
services for project cost and schedule assessment. We are
currently engaged by the Washington State Department of
Transportation to evaluate risk for selected projects. The
services include:
- Conducting risk elicitation workshops whereby we work
with subject matter experts to identify, describe, and
quantify key project cost and schedule risks.
- Develop the risk analysis and provide a listing of
those key risks that are "candidates for mitigation."
- Produce a focused report of findings and recommendations.
May 18, 2005 - Dr. Sam Sugiyama will be presenting a 75 minute
session titled "Monte Carlo Simulation and Forecasting," at the
Forecasting Summit 2005 conference in Boston, MA, September 27-28.
Monte Carlo Simulation and Forecasting Abstract:
Financial analysis of the uncertain future is increasingly
performed using Monte Carlo simulation software and Excel to
capture variation in an organization's bottom-line. This session
discusses what Monte Carlo simulation is, why it should be used
and the role forecasting plays. Principles for construction
of ad hoc Monte Carlo simulation forecasting components from
any of the following forecasts are presented-ad hoc forecasts,
time series forecasts and dynamic regression forecasts. The
session also provides a road map for performing risk analysis
using Monte Carlo simulation.
View the website for more details at http://www.forecasting-summit.com/program.htm.
Dr. Sugiyama and Ryland Alaniz, programmer, prepared the material.
May 3, 2005 - EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC will soon be offering consulting
and training services to Crystal Ball users.
Dr. Sugiyama is bringing his years of expertise in modeling and
risk analysis to Crystal Ball Users. He will begin offering courses
in the Fall of 2005.
April 27, 2005 - EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC will be publishing the
text, Performing a Sound Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball-An Analyst's
Guide.
Dr. Sugiyama's techniques of performing sound risk analysis will
be documented in this text. The concepts and presentation have
been well received since the early 1990s.
April 11, 2005 - A New Other Resources page for complementary
risk analysis/forecasting resources provided by others.
We are now recommending software and services that we have found
matches our requirement for product and service quality. Visit
the page and follow the links to the corresponding websites.
March 19, 2005 - EC RISK USA & EUROPE, LLC will be publishing a monthly
newsletter discussing analysis techniques clients have found useful.
Sign up now.
We will begin by presenting a revised version of an important
earlier technical comment.
New course schedule and new courses coming soon.
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